How Britain is bullied by France, America, and even tiny Mauritius

Britain Is Getting Bullied by France, America and Tiny Mauritius

Despite losing a series of disastrous battles to a coalition of European allies led by John Churchill, Duke of Marlborough and ancestor of Winston, France secured a favorable peace deal at the end of the War of the Spanish Succession in 1714, unjustified by its military position. Diplomacy again came to the rescue after Napoleon was defeated at Waterloo a century later, and once more in 1945 when France recovered the trappings of great power status despite the humiliation of Nazi occupation — all by relentlessly pursuing the national interest. Might there be a French lesson for the British as our courtship of Europe and the US stumbles?

If that sounds like ancient history, then President Donald Trump provides some American tips that might be handy for British diplomats in The Art of the Deal. First, identify what the other party needs and use it as power; never seem desperate. Then aim high: Start with extreme demands, and push relentlessly for what you want, settling for less, but still a win. Fight back: Be aggressive and firm in conflicts, do not back down easily. Finally: Use publicity and media to your advantage and build your brand while all this is happening.

By Trump’s ruthless, transactional, often unsuccessful, standards, British diplomacy can seem a bit needy. By French standards, the UK lacks strategic focus. A big problem for the Brits, perched as ever between transatlantic cousins and continental neighbors, is that they’re chasing two conflicting ideas of their national interest — or self-interest if you prefer a Trumpian lens.

On the one hand Prime Minister Keir Starmer is bent on “a Brexit reset” with the European Union that will boost growth. On the other he strains every sinew to keep the EU-loathing US president attached to NATO — hoping to prevent a sellout of Ukraine, while looking for a trade deal or two with Washington.

This might seem an unavoidable diplomatic contortion for a middling Atlantic power, but there’s another serious flaw to the approach: It supposes the UK has two reasonable negotiating partners. It doesn’t.

If the EU and French president Emmanuel Macron were rational, they’d see the threat from Vladimir Putin’s revanchist Russia necessitates hugging nuclear-armed Britain close and showing its voters they have much to lose by backing Nigel Farage’s anti-Europe populist party, Reform UK. That, sadly, is beyond them. Far more important is that the UK cannot be seen to prosper after Brexit: There can be no reward for quitting the bloc. Besides, the domestically floundering Starmer seems desperate. Why not take him to the cleaners?

Trump’s motivations should be the opposite of Macron’s, but he still ends up in a similar place. He has every reason to butter up Britain and show disgruntled EU members run by hard-right allies that the grass is greener outside the club. His overwhelming short-term psychological imperative, however, is to get one over on friend and foe alike (more often on suppliant friends like the UK, rather than tough foes like China). The British PM is anxious to please, so the president can squeeze him and perhaps even welch on a deal.

Last week, Starmer announced with fanfare the good news that the UK will rejoin the Erasmus scheme for young people to travel to Europe for university or training. On Wednesday the invoice arrived. The expense of rejoining is £570 million ($762 million) at a so-called discount of 30%, rising to £1 billion a year for 100,000 students, and costing £6-8 billion over seven years. Well-heeled parents love their offspring spending a year in Leiden or Madrid, but this is a brutally expensive way to benefit a small demographic.

In May Starmer also struck an EU deal on food standards and youth mobility. He wanted the food deal to boost British exports, but wasn’t keen on a youth-access scheme that would drive up immigration numbers. He had to give in, though, even after awarding the French the cherished right to fish in British waters. None of this was tied to getting a sweeter Erasmus agreement, either, which a less weak government might have insisted on.

If there were signs of a broader softening on the EU side, the odd setback would not matter. But last month the UK was also denied access to the EU’s massive new armaments fund, SAFE, which would let it cooperate in defending against Russia and putting a battlegroup in Ukraine. The price of membership demanded was £5 billion. Even Starmer balked at that.

And Washington? On Thursday the Guardian reported that a UK/US deal to avoid drug tariffs has no underlying text, just headline objectives. Britain’s National Health Service will pay 25% more for American medicines, while the promise of zero US tariffs on UK pharmaceutical products has zero legal footing.

The White House has also suspended a vaunted £31 billion “tech prosperity” deal with the UK because it wants more concessions over the unrelated matter of farm products. Even the celebrated cutting of tariffs on British steel and aluminum exports to zero hasn’t been implemented. These shiny gifts were offered in gratitude for Trump’s second state visit and royal photo op. But that was then. If Farage looks like a winner after May’s local UK elections, Trump will try to help his ideological soulmate reach power.

Even tiny Mauritius is in on the act. Knowing Starmer was desperate to secure a leaseback deal to keep America’s Diego Garcia airbase on the Chagos islands, formerly a British overseas territory, the Mauritian government demanded hefty payments. London is now on the hook for a deal that values the site at £3.4 billion, potentially much more if you take a less benign view of inflation.

All these deals have their defenders and some have merit. Starmer will pursue his Brussels reset vigorously next year, urged on by allies to propose a full EU customs deal in his next election manifesto, should he still be around for it. That would mean tearing up all his previous hard negotiated trade treaties.

The PM still boasts of his unique deal with Washington, and he has some foreign friends. Germany, as ever, is more sympathetic to Britain than France. The volatile Trump’s ardor may turn hot again, having gone cold on Britain.

In the meantime Starmer is off to China soon to visit President Xi Jinping. Perhaps the ever-so-humble approach will pay off this time in a trade deal that benefits both parties. On past performance, I wouldn’t count on it.